From Creationism to Evolutionism in Computer Programming

The Programmer's Story: From Über-God to Underdog

Author:François-René Rideau, meta.ph/or

Contents

Introduction

Abstract

Programming tools imply a story about who the programmer is; the stories we tell inspire a corresponding set of tools. Past progress can be told in terms of such stories; Future progress can be imagined likewise. Making the stories explicit is a great meta-tool... and it's fun!

History

This essay is based on a speech given at ENS in October 2005 (see original announcement). It has been redacted, extended and polished under the purview of the loveliest of lovelies, my wonderful and ever-insightful Lucía. The essay then served as the basis for another speech at the MSLUG in January 2009 (see slides).

Preface

I was once asked to summarize the main TUNES concept in a few words. My reply was that the central idea behind TUNES is the evolutionary paradigm for programming. What is this evolutionary paradigm? The opposite of the creationist paradigm. (Duh!) Now, what is...? Wait, let's examine paradigms for the appearance of software on earth: start from the initial naive paradigm of software creationism and watch how it has evolved since.

From Über-God to Underdog

Creationist Programming

At first there was nothing; then, God zapped code into the computer, and Software came into existence.

The belief in this simple story is Software Creationism. The programmer is a God outside and above the machine; the program is his creation which is implemented in the machine. The programmer God is perfect, and has a perfect program in mind. The actual program may not be perfect, however, because it's a rendition of His platonic idea on an imperfect Machine. Though its form might be limited by the constraints of the finite physical computer, the program is the expression of a perfect intent.

Software Creationism is not only the naive belief that non-programmers naturally form when confronted with the apparition of software, it is also the programming paradigm taught to students at most schools: in exercises and in tests students are expected to produce from scratch and on paper a perfect solution to a perfect specification; in assignments and projects, they otherwise have to write standalone pieces of code to be run and evaluated once by the teacher, software that should not rely on any code by anyone else or contribute to such, except through the documented libraries provided by the system.

No programming tools are necessary in this paradigm; just a switchboard to insert the program into the machine. Who needs tools when you're a perfect God? You transmit your perfect ideas to the machine directly in its memory at the binary level (or base ten, if that's your kind of machine). Programming the machine best done directly in the machine's language, or in whichever write-only language the machine understands, as suits the expression of God's will.

The Devil

The story of software creation by a superior God is beautiful; however, anyone who has ever tried to program soon realizes that he can seldom get his programs to run perfectly at the first try, or even the second. Bad things happen: Bugs, typing mistakes, mismanipulations, cosmic rays, hardware malfunctions, errors in the program, etc. Happily, the simplest explanation suffices to account for it: The Devil.

There is a devil that modifies things in a way that counters God's intent. Whether this Devil is a personality defect within God, an opposing force outside God, or an artefact of the laws of Nature that God created is unclear and might really not matter. What is clear and matters is that the bad things that happen are the symptoms of the presence of dark forces of Evil. This Devil introduces imperfections in the way the machine works, and causes it to fail to perfectly receive the perfect message from the perfect God and thus to fail to embody His perfect platonic idea.

To keep this devil under control, appropriate tools pop into existence: punched cards or display consoles are used that can be read by the programmer God as well as written. Thus programs can be monitored, double checked, fixed, retried, stored, despite the attempts by the devil to make them fail. Programs must be read as well as written, decoded as well as coded, and thus come into existence all kinds of languages to express computation. Many software development practices are invented, to be followed religiously.

From a better (or less bad) paradigm for programming, we thus get better (or less bad) tools that allow us to improve software engineering and cope with the difficulties of the endeavour. This will continue to be true as we improve our software engineering paradigms.

Interestingly, anytime we find a new and hopefully better such paradigm, we will always be able consider a variant of it where some dark forces conspire to undo or corrupt what the creative forces strive to achieve. Thus, the idea of such opposing forces is a universal "mixin" for software engineering paradigms, the devil mixin.

Intelligent Design

Even with the Devil variant, the pure Creationist approach to programming soon proves insufficient to explain how Software comes into existence, and why programming is such a difficult activity. As projects grow bigger, it becomes obvious that a whole software system cannot be completed in one go. The sheer volume of it makes it impractical. But it is possible to create the software in many steps, starting from foundations and building layers upon layers, bootstrapping complex structures from simpler ones, shaping tools and tool-making infrastructures, replacing parts with better ones as the need and opportunity arises, building scaffolding that may get destroyed later possibly leaving fossils along the way, ,(--) all according to a carefully designed master plan. This programming paradigm has a name: Intelligent Design.

Intelligent Design is a most common paradigm amongst software professionals and amateurs, whether in the industry or in academia, if only because it flatters them. Programmers realize that software problems are big, complex beasts, but have faith in their godly brainiac powers to tame those beasts through the reasonable, intelligent, systematic endeavor of well-trained specialists creating well-designed programs.

Within this paradigm are created and elaborated such tools and concepts as assemblers, formula translators, source code, operating systems, compilers, compiler-compilers, compilation management utilities, etc. Top down design, flow charts, modelling tools, hierarchically layered systems, the waterfall design process, and all kind of neat engineering practices follow from this paradigm.

Now of course, this paradigm has a devil variant: Intelligent Design with a Devil. Based on this enhanced paradigm, according tools are engineered into existence to counter the chaos introduced by the devil: editors to modify programs and remove bugs (based e.g. on line numbers), loggers, tracers and single-steppers to help locate bugs. Some small amount of reviewing and testing is added at the end of the design process.

Polytheism

Another useful mixin for software engineering paradigms is the polytheism mixin. According to this partial theory, there isn't one God, with one Master Intent and consequent actions, but a lot of gods, each with his own intent and actions. It may be that many programmers are each a god partaking in some part of designing the Software; it may be that some God takes multiple roles to address the multi-faceted endeavor of Software design; it may be that God's intent changes with time, that God is moody and has tantrums.

God's ways are impenetrable, but enhanced theories of what God is lead to the design of new tools. To address the multiple programming gods, files are invented; as gods get organized in hierarchies, so are files organized in directories. Machines are time-shared, operating systems grow to manage multiple users, and eventually multiple users at the same time, each running multiple processes. Communication protocols are developed to exchange data between machines. Source code comments and formal documentation serve to convey intent and content between programming gods.

The devil mixin can also be combined with the polytheism mixin. The devil may have multiple aspects that each have to be addressed separately. The apparent or actual polytheism could be explained as a one God's multiple personality disorder, and the devil as a symptom of His schizophrenia. The devil may be a God himself — a malicious programmer. Any of these explanations for errors in God's Design can lead to new techniques to address the identified sources of error. User accounts are protected by passwords; files and other resources have usage restrictions, and will be backed up; redundancy checks are added to communication; errata complete documentation, and pages are intentionally left blank to prepare for them.

Unintelligent Design

Intelligent Design was once a great progress in how to approach software creation, but sooner or later, you must realize that it doesn't describe reality accurately. The design of most software is just really bad. Whether you consider the end result of the design or the process to get there, you find that it shines neither by its efficiency nor by its elegance. Most drafts are no good at all, and a lot of the production is rightfully scratched, with a lot of work wasted without any positive result to show for it. The elective releases often are hardly better, and it isn't rare that good ideas were discarded in favor of bad ideas. The issue isn't that errors creep in that corrupt the implementation of a perfect understanding; the issue is that the understanding was far from perfect to begin with. We must recognize that as far as gods go, software programmers are not very bright. Let's face it, the programmer God is just plain stupid. And so, the next stepping stone on the way towards better programming paradigms is: Unintelligent design.

God may have an intent, but he's a blind idiot who doesn't know exactly what it is he wants or how to achieve it. He not only makes gross mistakes, he writes plainly erroneous code that can't possibly work. Tools to help him design programs will thus include helpful messages from his compilers for error diagnostic and recovery: their role is not to tell an intelligent programmer "the devil crept in while you weren't looking, just have a look here, you can obviously see him and chase him", it is to tell the unintelligent programmer "what you did was stupid, here is the explanation why", for it would be hard for his limited intellect to figure it out all by himself. Syntax checking, type checking and various kinds of advanced semantic checking are invented to catch the more or less obvious errors and converge more quickly towards what the programmer would mean if only he were capable of forming coherent intent. Interactive help, manuals and hints constantly remind the programmer God of the things about which he should know better. Integrated development environments help God play with the code and get faster answers as to whether or not his ideas make sense. All the software interfaces are made idiot-proof by making languages more abstract and completing them with ample compile-time and run-time checking. Tools do most of the work and clever interfaces try to present things so that complexity is managed away from the stupid user, and all decisions may be done based on a shallow limited view of the world, the only kind that fits the programmer God's tiny brain. There is no shortage of imaginable tools and prosthetic devices to help the programmer God cope with his mental disabilities; and these tools are themselves limited mainly by the inability of their own godly program designers.

When a devil adds machine malfunction to operator dysfunction, testing becomes something to take seriously and systematically. When multiple gods are involved, the many resulting processes running at the same time must be protected from each other; the software is divided in many parts, that are tested separately; and contracts for what happens at their interface are attemptedly defined and enforced. Because the programmer gods cannot be trusted to remember all the issues with the software, some software must be used to systematically track those bugs and issues. When some of the programming gods are malicious, you're glad they are idiots, too, and you bury them under the weight and complexity of security features that will catch each of the more obvious malicious types of behavior.

Lamarckism

Whether software is designed by intelligent or stupid gods, or something else altogether, we importantly may understand that software changes to adapt to new circumstances; and so we come to focus on the nature of this change. Such is Software Lamarckism.

Filesystems may remember many versions of the files they hold, each with a different version number. Software releases are numbered too. Because many gods may be working at a time, a piece of software may exist along many different development branches. To understand the differences introduced, whether they were intelligent, stupid or malicious and what to do of them, tools computing differences between files are created. To merge the intelligent changes and the fixes to the stupid and malicious ones along the many different branches, tools are created to apply computed differences to branched files. Revision control and change management is born, and continuous backup remembers all previous versions of tracked files.

Lamarckism is not a complete theory of why and how change happens, but it introduces a useful focus on change. It is thus the starting point for more elaborate theories that will explain the development of software in the terms of this incremental process of change.

Supernatural Selection

Though Unintelligent Design helps further the field of software engineering, one may realize that while small parts of software are understood, software at large is not understood, much less designed. Lamarckism, by shifting the spotlight to the change process, leads to asking why and how programmers lacking complete understanding choose to keep or change some or some other parts of the software. The immediate answer is that as god programmers write, they stumble upon good or bad features that they winnow by propagating the good and by eliminating the bad. The software writing process is thus some kind of artificial selection, under the careful, intelligent guidance of the programmer God. The programmer God impresses upon the process a definite direction, Progress, and otherwise lets software evolve organically in this divine order. This software paradigm is Supernatural Selection.

Under this paradigm, new tools are selected into prominence. Prototyping tools help the programmer God flesh out as many ideas as possible as quickly as possible, so he may select the correct ones. Formal specifications help define what software should be doing, without worry about how it will be doing it. Heuristic search algorithms use intelligently designed strategies to systematically explore spaces of potential solutions too large to be explored by the programmer themselves. The combination of these two approaches leads to declarative programming, where the programmer God focuses on the intent, and delegates the implementation to the machine. From one phase to the next, programs are transformed through systematic metaprograms. To prevent the devil from corrupting software, formal proofs are developed that perfectly exclude undesired behavior. To coordinate multiple programming gods, software modules separate interface from implementation, allowing for experimentation and adaptation separately in each part; rational developer communities are created, conferences are given, journals are published.

This whole approach has also been called the First Wave of Cybernetics, combining an understanding of the natural dynamics of software with a faith in the ultimate power of an intelligent and purposeful programmer god, culminating with expert systems using explicit knowledge representation in an attempt to solve complex real-world problems.

Teleological Evolution

The paradigm of Supernatural Selection obviously suffers from the same shortcoming as did the theory of Intelligent Design before it, in that it supposes that the programmer God (or at least some of them) are supremely intelligent. The only reason this shortcoming was not immediately grasped is because these successive paradigms were adopted without ever being articulated as clear theories. Now, an immediate improvement over the previous paradigm is to stop believing that the programmer Gods are intelligent. Gods may guide the evolution of software, but their contribution to the process is hardly an overall intelligent coherent purpose; rather it is through a number of interventions based on partial knowledge, intuition, randomness, towards a progress that can be felt but not defined. Such is the theory of Teleological Evolution.

With the transition from intelligent guidance to unintelligent guidance, we are lead to the appearance of new tools, that roughly correspond to the Second Wave of Cybernetics. Genetic Algorithms, connectionist neural networks, probabilistically approximately correct learning methods allow to mine information from large databases without any explicitly designed representation of knowledge. Weakly structured computations allow to manipulate data despite limited understanding. At a smaller scale, programmers are satisfied with randomized algorithms that have good enough performance in practice despite having dreadful worst case guarantees. To protect from the devil, checksums and probabilistic proofs can be more useful than unattainable formal proofs. To synchronize multiple gods, user communities come to prominence, as users, though the least proficient, are those who possess the best distributed knowledge of what makes the software useful or not.

The paradigm of Teleological Evolution loosens the strictures of Design or Supernatural Selection, and opens the space for practical software solutions to problems beyond the full grasp of the programmers. While it reckons the importance of reasonable endeavor, this importance is de-emphasized; indeed, even reason can be seen as but a fast-track internal process of random production and selection inside the programmer's mind, as guided by his godly intuition. In the end, Teleological Evolution embraces an unfathomable mystical intuition as the ultimate divine source of creation.

Natural Selection

As far as paradigms for understanding software development go, the notion of evolution under godly guidance was an improvement over that of direct design by purposeful gods, which was itself an improvement over the notion of immediate creation. But in each case, this was only pushing back one level the assumption of a driving intent external to the world. Real evolutionary theory does away with this assumption. Survival of the fittest does not suppose an external criterion of fitness to which living creatures are submitted; rather, survival itself is the only criterion, tautological and merciless. Survival is its own purpose: those programs that survive, survive; those that don't, don't. Changes that improve the odds that their host software should survive and propagate, thus statistically tend to propagate themselves and colonize their respective niches. Changes that decrease the odds that their host software should survive and propagate, thus statistically fail to propagate themselves and eventually disappear.

The cumulative result of this natural selection is an evolutionary process that favors bundles of traits that tend towards their own reproduction. This freewheeling evolution necessitates no godly intervention, neither by an intelligent conscience, nor by madmen. More remarkably, programmers are no gods above it, and their actions are no such interventions. They are but machines like others, bundles of self-reproducing traits competing to exploit the resources of the universe. As compared to other machines in this programming universe, certainly programmers are unique and different — we're all unique and different; that doesn't exempt them from the laws of natural selection. Programmers are machines trying to survive in a wild machine-eats-machine world; their actions are their attempts to survive and reproduce by gaining an edge in the race for ever more efficient acquisition and use of reproductive resources. If God exists, then ever since He created the world, He has just been relaxing, sitting back and enjoying the show. Evolution is not guided by God, it is God's Spectator Sport. Such is the paradigm of Natural Selection.

With this new understanding of the world of software development emerge new tools to improve our development processes. We think in terms of self-sustaining systems, evolving and competing based on their ability to survive and spread. We understand that the hosts and actors of this memetic competition are humans as well as machines, or even more so. We may then notice that systems are never born big, and that the only big systems that work are those that were born small and evolved and grew in a way that they were kept working at every step. We explain the spread of ideas in terms of generations of humans and machines passing on their forking and mingling traditions. We understand that pieces of hardware, software and wetware survive as part of ecosystems, with cycles of development and use by various humans, where economic and legal aspects have their importance as well as technical and managerial aspects. We realize that these systems compete on a market ultimately driven by economic costs, of which technical aspects are but a small part, sometimes not decisive, though they are what the technicians obsess about.

Because the forces opposing creation are no devil but malicious humans indeed, we use of computer cryptography and cultivate networks of human trust to achieve security. A Third Wave of Cybernetics attempts to re-create artificial life and life-like phenomena through the emergence of behavior from many software agents.

Natural Selection provides a big picture that puts haughty programmers down from their godly pedestal and back into the muddy real world. It doesn't offer direct solutions to design problems so much as it dispels our illusions about fake solutions and unearned authorities. No one is a god, above the others, to predict what will work and dictate what to do; our experts' dreams are often but vain obsessions, whereas some rare amateurs' successful experiment may start a revolution. Life is the ultimate judge — accept no substitute, and respect its sanction.

Inside Evolution

Natural Selection may appear to look down on the world as a soulless marketplace. It will only appear soulless if you imagine yourself in the seat of that laissez-faire God above the world. But face it, you're no god, you're not outside the world and above it. There may be a god, who may or may not be intervening in this World, but you have to come to the realization that He's definitely not you. You're one of us earthworms, trying to make the best out of what you have (or not trying, and thus probably failing and promptly disappearing into irrelevance). Evolution is not something for you to enjoy watching, it is something you are part of, willy nilly. You can't just let nature decide, you're part of the nature that will decide. Whichever genes and memes you carry may or may not survive — it is largely up through your actions that they will succeed or fail. You're in the experimental set of changes that may or may not work out well, or you're in the control set of the obsolete that will surely be replaced. Such is the view from Inside Evolution.

The tools that matter are those that are available to you. Your resources are limited, and you should invest them wisely. Which tools will make you most productive personally? Opportunities are there to be seized; if not by you now, by someone else later. On the other hand, it may be too soon to invest in some ideas, and too late to invest in others; timing is key. Specialization will help, and can be a long-term investment that provides compound interests. As for cooperation with other non-gods, you can only go so far with your own efforts, and success lies in being able to leverage the efforts of other people. Which tools allow you to reuse as much as possible of these people's efforts? Tools can be technical, or can be social. Not just software libraries, but software communities, software market niches, software business contracts. Of course, you always need some kind of exclusive resource to ensure a revenue stream; free software or not, your combined proficiency, trustworthiness and time are ultimately the only such resource you have, and ample enough to live well if you can market it, though it will probably not make you super rich. On the devil side, intellectual frauds will try to have you adopt their bad ideas, and other scammers will try to divert your resources in their favor; you must learn to avoid them.

As you fully grasp the fact that all actors are individuals, not just yourself, you start taking into account incentive structures. Incentive structures will put you and your associates in a position to productively cooperate at your full potential, or to work at a fraction of it; so carefully watch both your legal and business arrangements. You may see that proprietary software destroys incentive from anyone who doesn't fully trust the software owner, and that trust can last but until the eventual catastrophe inevitable in any centralized management; the technically best proprietary software will still die eventually, as its unique management starts accumulating mistakes, goes under, or changes priorities, for reasons unrelated to the technical superiority of the software or lack thereof. Any proprietary software has a suspended death sentence. On the contrary, you may see that free software creates an insurance against disagreement with associates, and ensures perennity of software investment. Free software is virtually immortal, it will survive and continue to evolve long after any particular strain of momentarily superior proprietary software has come and gone.

With a systematic view of incentives, you stress the importance of contracts and accountability as a way to structure human interaction, re-uniting liberty of means and responsibility for results in complex software arrangements. For instance service-level agreements will allow to robustly build larger, more complex structures than direct command chains. You may recognize the value of free markets as a way to organize people and to evaluate ideas, rewarding those able to invest their resources in the good ones rather than the bad ones. You may celebrate startup companies as light innovation structures with highly motivated personnel.

The Inside view to Evolution restores the soul in the market place for software. This soul is yours. You're the entrepreneur of your own life.

Stories Programmers Tell

Paradigms Evolve!

From naive Instant Creationism to the Inside view of Natural Selection, we can observe a notional evolution of the underlying stories that people tell of themselves as they program, and a corresponding change of the methods they use. And this change can indeed be seen as improvement or at least elaboration, with the least useful changes being replaced by better ones. Simpler stories don't just die out, though; they find their niches where their the cost of improving on them is higher that the return on the improvement.

Most of the time, these stories are implicit, never told in so many words, neither admitted nor denied. They are official lies that go unsaid but are well understood, that nobody dares to question yet that nobody feels comfortable with. Once transformed from implicit stories to explicit theories, they become tools by which to explicitly think about what we're doing. They we can find that some theories are lacking, identify where and how they are lacking, and propose better theories. They become scientific tools, or at least tools of knowledge, that liberate us instead of imprison us.

When a theory is found to be overly simple, it doesn't mean that said theory has no validity whatsoever, or that the tools it inspired are entirely without utility. Indeed, simpler theories are usually simpler to put in practice, the simpler tools they suggest are cheaper to build and use. Their validity may be limited, but when valid they are, they are the right tool for the job. By all means, if you're building a program so simple that you can understand it all and instantly create it from scratch, do it! Don't follow a 12-step plan to software development to be rinsed and lathered along 30 iterations. If on the other hand you can't fully understand the program you're building, do try to design it, and if even the design is too hard, escalate the methods you use until you hopefully get it done. Generating random programs until one is found to solve your problem should be a last resort. Yet with proper biases in generation and cleverness in detection, this resort might eventually also prove the most powerful, if the most expensive.

And so we find that these stories about the evolution of programs are themselves paradigms that evolve and may yet evolve some more.

Paradigms Matter

This evolution of programming paradigms is a nice story, but what is its relevance for software developers? After all, the tools described above already exist; they have been created, they have been engineered, they have been selected or they have emerged, without any of these paradigms being explicitly stated, much less used as a conscious guide. Do these paradigms correspond to anything real, or are they but a nice-sounding rationalization? What do we gain if anything by spelling them out?

Well, as Daniel Dennett wrote, "There is no such thing as philosophy-free science; there is only science whose philosophical baggage is taken on board without examination." This is true of computer science and computer engineering as of any other human endeavour. Just because you don't state your assumptions doesn't save you from the consequences of following them when they are erroneous, not anymore than putting your head in the sand would save you from predators you can't see. These paradigms do describe assumptions implicitly followed without a conscious decision, and each step in their evolution describes relevant phenomena to which earlier paradigms are blind. And those who make unconscious decisions are but surer victims of the problems they are blind to.

Realizing that some phenomena are not accidents happening during development, but constitute an essential part of it is necessary to properly address them. "Failing to plan is planning to fail." If you assume say, the Intelligent Design paradigm, even though you may benefit from tools developed with latter paradigms, you will systematically waste resources trying to intelligently design what is beyond the reach of any intelligent design, or aiming at the only solutions reachable by it despite their being inferior to competition. However, if you go beyond intelligent design, you will come to better solutions naturally by letting them grow. By embracing a more primitive paradigm, you will introduce a lot of unnecessary nasty bugs by not taking seriously the systematic processes of weeding them out early with dedicated tools; you will systematically fail to consider cheap solutions that are at hand, but that do not lend themselves to a perfect algorithmic description, etc.

Any discrepancy between reality and what you perceive is a blind spot; the less you see, the more mistakes you make. Any discrepancy between your practice and your theory is a blind spot that you can readily fix by applying the theory and enhancing the practice. Any discrepancy between your theory and the best available theory is a blind spot that you can fix by learning more theory. Any discrepancy between the best available theory and reality is a blind spot you cannot do much about. Those who stay behind in terms of software development paradigm will be incapable of doing what will appear to them as clever lateral thinking, strokes of genius or unreachable fantasy, whereas those who master further paradigms will casually achieve feats previously deemed impossible by a simple systematic application of their more evolved paradigms. In the end, if you don't stay on top of these paradigms and their application, you'll be outcompeted by those who do.

Now to those who understand the relevance of these programming paradigms, the important open question is: what is the next paradigm, if any? Is the above view from Inside Evolution the be-all, end-all of programming paradigms? Is the refinement of existing tools our only hope? Or will some further paradigm catch on? Can one identify and adopt this paradigm early on, and thus get an edge over competition?

What then, if anything, is next on our road as far ahead of the current paradigm as that paradigm was of previous ones?

Paradigmatic Optimism

The simplest view about future paradigms is that there will be no new ones, at least none that works. Our understanding of software development is mature and as good as it can get as far as the big picture goes, though there may always be a myriad of minor details to get right. This is Present Optimism: the theory that we've already reached the limit of knowledge.

Of course, assuming there is finite understandable information about the big picture of software development, there will be diminishing returns in understanding the field and eventually not enough new relevant information to possibly constitute a new paradigm change for the better. And so we can be confident that this theory of Present Optimism will some day be true about software development paradigms as about many things.

On the other hand, considering how new the field of software development is and how fast it has changed in just the last few years, it seems premature to declare that we fully understand how software is developed and will not find new deep insights. If indeed our understanding of software development was to remain unchanged for, say, five to ten years, and all developers were to settle towards a finite set of well understood unchanging methods, then we could assert with much more confidence that indeed we have reached the acme of software development. But this hasn't nearly happened yet, and the case for Present Optimism is rather slim.

Another kind of optimism and a common idea about the future of software paradigms has always been that computers will somehow become more intelligent than men and will take over the menial task of programming, like djinns to whom you will give orders and who will grant your wishes. This is Extreme Future Optimism, or Millenarism: the theory that soon(er or later), we'll reach a Millenium (or Singularity) where all our worries will be taken away.

However, this Optimism is based on a misunderstanding of what progress is about, a misunderstanding that is best dispelled by confronting it with the equal and opposite misunderstanding: the claim that such a future is bleak because it means machines will be taking all our jobs away. Hopefully the errors will cancel each other in a collision from which light will emerge.

No Escape From Evolution

Yes, computers in many ways have replaced humans for many tasks, and will replace humans for more tasks to come. The building of tools that replace human work in software development is what our whole story of paradigms was about. But competition by computerized tools does not destroy human jobs, it only displaces jobs towards new areas not covered by tools. Useful tools provide some of the same positive satisfactions as before and some more, while reducing the negative efforts; the goal of some previous jobs is fulfilled without the associated costs. The human resources previously used toward that goal are not destroyed but liberated; they are made available to be redirected to new useful endeavours that couldn't previously be afforded.

Furthermore, as long as humans and machines do not have the same relative performance in all activities, the law of comparative advantages ensures that the tasks relatively better done by meatware than by software will remain a domain of human activity. And even if machines do it better than humans, nobody prevents you from programming without machine help, or from choosing to sponsor a human rather than a machine for the programming tasks you need, and there will probably always be a cottage industry of "brain made" software just like there now is a cottage industry of "hand made" pottery. But just like automation in other industries made these industries vastly more productive and mankind at large vastly more wealthy, so will automation in programming make software a more profitable industry and better serve mankind. Through all the software development tools already mentioned in the article above, automation already serves mankind, to a tremendous degree. Continuing to program in Java will no more provide job security than did programming in C++, COBOL, Assembly or Binary before; it will only guarantee a lot of wasted effort and ultimately failure in the Luddite refusal of automation.

What machines can neither possibly create nor destroy is on the one hand the desire for ever more, ever higher satisfactions, and on the other hand, the ability to adapt and work towards these satisfaction: in other words, human life, its drive and its spirit. Machines displace this life for the better, turning feats into chores, chores into menial tasks, menial tasks into assumable commodities. As our past worries are taken away, we worry about new often loftier tasks that become our focus. Ultimately, the only persons who create human jobs are human parents, and only illness and death destroy jobs away; the rest is a matter of organizing existing human resources. The fear of Artificial Intelligence is a lifeformist stance wrapped in the usual protectionist fallacies, and its narrowmindedness should inspire the same spite as racist or nationalist arguments before it.

Conversely, blind faith in Artificial Intelligence is yet another mystic superstition by millenarists dreaming of being saved from having to live their own lives. This blind faith is a cop out, in that it wishes away the very nature of life and its intrinsic difficulties. Indeed, even if "intelligent" machines are to replace humans in the activity of programming, said machines won't be able cop out of a programming paradigm that way; the buck will have to stop somewhere, and the issues will have to be addressed. Sentient agents, whether electrical or biological of, are equally constrained by the laws of Human Action: the competition for scarcity of resources, the power of incentives, the benefits of cooperation, the law of supply and demand, the importance of property rights, etc., and ultimately, evolution, will apply to them as to they apply to us.

However brighter than today a future with artificial intelligences might be, bridging the gap between today and that future, if possible, won't be achieved by hand-waving. It will require a paradigm shift that the cop out precisely prevents from knowing.

The legitimate cop out is not to assume knowledge but to admit ignorance: "my previous investigations didn't lead to any firm conclusion to this question, and I don't know have enough combined care for the matter and trust in the remaining available venues to investigate to afford further investigation." But are we reduced to this ignorance? Are there not things we know or can guess about the directions that the future may take?

Bootstrapping Intelligence

If you could provide an accurate functional description of what the future would bring, then this future would already be there, by the simple execution of this description as a plan. Any vision of the future is thus speculative, fallible, blurry and incomplete. The tracks I will propose to follow are thus but my personal interpretation; but, of course, no more so than the explanations that preceded.

What is clear to me is that currently an awful lot of what is done by programmers can and will be automated away: from more or less straightforward performance tweaks to translation between various layers of software, from maintenance of multiple representations of the system to documentation, tutorials and testing, from negotiating what the software should be doing to ensuring that it does not do something unexpected. A lot of the work currently done by human intelligence will in the future be replaced by computer automation. Indeed, all the previously mentioned progress in terms of programming tools from all the previously mentioned programming paradigms can be seen as such replacement of human intelligence by computer automation. And the trend will continue in ways we can't imagine precisely.

The purpose of computers is to automate that which can be automated. This applies to all human activities. In particular this applies to software development itself. The self-application of improved automation techniques to the development of further automation techniques one hope may be self-catalytic: cumulative progress in machine intelligence leads to ever more progress in machine intelligence; bias towards systems that mutate better and faster leads to systems with even stronger bias toward mutating better and faster; pressure for higher value and lower costs leads to automation of production that increases pressure for higher value and lower costs. In a sense, intelligence at programming computers is the most general kind of intelligence computers may have; a series of meta-level mutations can quickly bootstrapping such intelligence in a positive feedback loop, until a phase transition is reached.

Now, whether we ever reach a "Singularity" where mankind is transcended or whether the history of mankind continues as usual, whether or not we ever create artificially intelligent entities that behave as autonomous agents or whether computer intelligence remains a prop to augment human agents, it is irrelevant where or how far the road goes; that is not for you to decide, only to observe. What matters is that this road will be taken, and that those who stay behind will become irrelevant; what matters is that if there is an inflexion point where we'll reach quickly diminishing returns on investment in machine intelligence, this point seems to be well ahead of us; what matters is that we are within the part of the curve that accelerates.

Quantum Leaps

Certainly, we can imagine a lot of tools, that will indeed help with software development: For instance, we can work on better languages and "optimizing" compilers that work better in a world of massively distributed computing, with major disuniformity in the memory and processing architecture. We can find better type systems, grow deeper expert systems, improve statistical analysis of data bases, and generally throw everything we have at improving software development.

But not all mutations contribute as much to bootstrapping machine intelligence. There may be infinitely many innovations that could allow to better apply programs to improve real-life in as many fields; but in any given field, such as the field of general intelligence, for all we know, progress is quantum: it is made of a finite number of breakthroughs accompanied by large series of small improvements. There is only so much that can be known, and so much that needs be known.

Most improvements in computer science are not breakthroughs and don't remotely involve anything like computer intelligence. At best, they improve the complexity of some class of programs we write by some constant factor. Simplifying such constants matters, at least to a point, in that any software complexity leads to a combinatorial explosion when automated programs try to synthetize and analyze such software. Reduction of the gunk in computing can thus positively affect the tractability of "intelligent" algorithms. Still, these improvements are not computer intelligence per se, only the matter that computer intelligence may work on. The question thus remains to identify what are the essential difficulties that have to be tackled on the way to more computer intelligence, and where are low-hanging fruits on the path to solving these specific difficulties.

What tools that can be developed today can best help automate programming in the long run? Which generally applicable software methods are not currently applied to improving software development itself? What kind of architecture makes it easier to combine such methods and apply them to the improvement of software development itself? What essential aspects of a more intelligent system are currently left unresearched?

These are the kind of questions you should be asking if you're interested in making a breakthrough in computer science.

From Deduction to Induction

One of the main features of digital computer software as we know it is that it behaves, combines, and can be understood according to rigorous formal semantics in perfectly well-defined deductive logics, suitable for engineering, design and scientific discussion. In other words, it is algorithmic.

Now, intelligence requires dealing with fluid concepts, creative solutions, inductive reasoning under misunderstood external pressures with incomplete information. There is never a definitive theory within which to deduce, and communication never follows a fixed semantics; theories evolve and paradigms shift. In other words, it is essentially non-algorithmic.

Not only do we currently utterly lack understanding of higher-level cognitive processes; we have just found a good reason why any direct attempt at engineering an algorithm implementing such processes is bound to fail. On the other hand, Solomonoff solved the problem of induction in theory all the while philosophers were claiming it was unsolvable.

The theoretical ideal of induction is that given a framework to perceive the world in terms of sensory events, we may consider all algorithmic descriptions of the series events, and assign to them probabilities exponentially decreasing with the length of such description. The approach naturally combines Occam's razor (always favor the simplest explanation) and Bayesian reasoning (in how posterior to prior probability distributions are related).

To apply this theory, we must realize its practical constraints. First, no algorithm can induce perfectly because the probability distribution itself is not computable; but we can approximate the perfect case arbitrarily less badly and we know how to measure progress in the processing of real-life data. Second, induction is not context-independent, but depends on learning from previous experience to improve the system's assumptions regarding the surrounding world; the accumulated persistent knowledge is to be interned in terms of concurrent networks of explanations, recognized patterns, etc. Third, the proper way to build an inductive system as well as to use it, is to interact with the system; interactions can bind meaning where large bodies cannot absent prior such binding.

This suggests key elements missing from existing computer architectures: maintenance of probabilistic model of the world; interfacing specialized algorithmic knowledge modules with such a model; integration of new data as perception from prior assumptions; accumulation and growth of model data across continuous user interactions; identification and tracking of intensional concepts that evolve with the model; user interactions as a conversation with an inductive agent.

None of these elements may be novel in isolation; but by and large they have remained on the periphery of computer systems; they haven't been integrated to the core of computing systems. Only highly specialized software uses any single of these techniques, in a way that makes a combination expensive and unlikely. The challenge is as much in architecting an overall system that combines these aspects as in the completion of the individual components.

Dialogue, Not Command

An interesting paradigm shift can already be lifted from the above approach: as computer intelligence emerges to complement human intelligence, programming is better seen as a two-way conversation between man and machine than as a unidirectional command-and-obey relationship.

In a way, all existing interactive tools, from monitoring indicators to status-displaying prompts to error messages to online help to shells to editors and other environments, recognize that when software development is concerned, information goes both ways. On the other hand, we have already established (in No Escape From Evolution) that humans will always have something to contribute to machines, though the informational content may dwindle. In between the current paradigm of command with feedback and a possible future paradigm of pure emotional transmission, there is a whole world of meaningful two-way communication that isn't explored yet.

There may soon come a day where we build software in a dialogue with computer development systems that maintain a persistent inductive model of the target system by integrating the information we offer, offering back elements of information it judges relevant, and asking for clarifications where it thinks are required. It will never be a dialogue between equals, with human and machine being interchangeable; actually, no dialogue whatsoever is possible between equals; a dialogue exists precisely because those who partake are each different and specialized. But it will be a dialogue where the machine may produce significant conjectures and refutations, trials and errors, filling of ambiguous blanks, resulting in non-trivial code that has to be persisted together with the "source" code or as part of it, least the program can't work and development is seriously set back.

Now, our trust in the target software system ultimately resides in deductively provable propositions about its behavior, whereas the probabilistic heuristics of inductive systems make it impossible to fully trust the stability of their behavior. Moreover, inductive models used by advanced interactive systems can hardly be shared between different systems with even slightly different architectures or past knowledge, and even when you can import data, you have all the reasons not to trust it [1]. Thus, even when we have inductive systems that can autonomously develop software, we will not use extracts of internal inductive models but deductive algorithms as an external lingua franca for humans and machines to transmit software and discuss about it.

At the same time, efficiency in communication and learning means that the common language to develop software will allow to independently specify bits of information about arbitrarily abstract or concrete concepts relating to the program being developed or its development process. In other words, the language will be declarative rather than imperative, functional, logical or object-oriented; instead of having any single fixed execution semantics, it will allow new concepts and abstractions, new definitional contexts, and new semantics to be expressed, defined and developed from existing ones. Sentences explaining such definitions will be declarative metaprograms algorithmically reducing new concepts to old ones; but the inductive model may also have a lot of partial fuzzy interrelated concepts that escape any single well-founded definition. Just as in human minds, inductive systems will have more internal state than can be expressed with words; not only will they make absurd mistakes and erroneous conjectures, they will have nonsensical dreams, obsessions about impossible schemes, humorous puns, poetic inspirations, intellectual challenges, and a vast base of ineffable unconscious active memories; the John McCarthy quip will apply to them that "Language is froth on the surface of thought".

As inductive systems grow in complexity, and as it becomes harder to trust that an adversary didn't intrude into the system to filter communication or bias the induction, even if you trust that the system itself hasn't gone crazy or adversarial, we may eventually need to reason and communicate using not just provable deductive algorithms, but also verifiably trustworthy bootstrapping paths from trusted sources to a working target system, with some good randomized heuristics to manage trust in said ultimately trusted sources. Having conversations about paths to bootstrap the knowledge of other machines in a way that humans can trust also implies that the conversing machines have some concept of the state of knowledge of the machines and humans concerned, sometimes including themselves.

Bootstrapping paths from simple machine executable semantics to complex systems through metaprograms of increasing declarativeness will thus be a tool for building actual physical systems as well as for building learned inductive models. They are also a paradigm for humans to build and explain systems even without much machine intelligence being involved.

Internal Evolution

The last intuition I want to share about the future of programming, independent from the development of induction or of declarative languages, is that evolutionary change will happen with or without you, and that your best chances of success are when it happens within you.

Considering any organism, agent, cohesive group or otherwise evolving project with an identity, etc. amongst a set of many similar such organisms, etc., competing for control over the same scarce resources, we may usefully distinguish between External Evolution and Internal Evolution.

External Evolution is what happens between projects: some projects' identifying patterns survive, reproduce, continue; other patterns fail to reproduce and go extinct as their carrying projects die out. Any given project involved in such External Evolution has only one chance: its identifying pattern is set at the birth of the project and either wins or fails with respect to its contemporary competitors. For instance, sexual reproduction is External Evolution as far as an individual human's genetic identity is concerned: either you pass on your specific genes, or you don't.

Internal Evolution is what happens within a given project. The project's working patterns survive or die out, while the project stays alive, and as they are selected for their survival qualities, they help the project itself survive, and spawn new projects. A project involving such Internal Evolution multiplies its chances of survival: it adapts to the world by adopting better working patterns. But Internal Evolution not only allows for a faster feedback loop, it also enables many simultaneous incremental changes that are not exclusive of each other, and bundled in smaller package-deals. For instance, the human immune system involves Internal Evolution of lymphocytes; and of course, human intellect involves Internal Evolution of ideas and other memes.

In short, with External Evolution, you statically pick an identity, and you see if you survive or die. With Internal Evolution, you dynamically adopt ideas, some ideas survive, some don't, but you survive and get stronger either way. You need to beware of course of ideas that will survive at your expense — but at least you don't have to stake all of yourself in one bet. If you keep those ideas that work and reject those that don't, if you preserve the integrity of those things you really identify with yet avoid staking as part of your identity ideas that are not essential to your survival, then you can benefit tremendously from Internal Evolution.

Interestingly enough, amongst the most significant evolutionary adaptations, those that changed the Game of evolution, many consisted in internalizing evolutionary forces, making them work towards promoting the adaptation. Cell membranes, DNA-coded replication, multi-cell organisms, sexual reproduction, nervous systems, language, moral agency, the Internet... in each case, the adaptation allowed a new kind of faster change to happen amongst lines of adopters, and leaving behind those who do not adopt it. Once they appeared, if you don't have it, you're out of The Big Game.

Similarly, in the specific realm of programming, higher-order typed programming languages, execution platforms with garbage collection, the ability to leverage a huge number of standardized libraries, Open Source development, are adaptations you better have adopted. In the future, you may need to adopt infrastructure that manages, evolves and combines metaprograms, and dynamically switches program representation, allowing changes that would be non-local with a statically fixed source representation; or you may need to embrace inductive systems, or something else I can't fathom.

Whatever happens, as evolution keeps accelerating, many new adaptations will appear during your own programming career, quite possibly including a few game-changing ones. Hopefully, you can see the change happening and embrace it. Otherwise: goodbye, it was nice meeting you.

The Fast Lane

To maximize the impact of your work, to remain relevant, or simply to stay alive, you'll want to adopt a few best practices to deal with the change around you. If you do, you'll soon enough find that you're moving in the Fast Lane, where change happens.

The general piece of advice from which the rest follows is: gear your system to emphasize Internal Evolution. That is, maximize the domain of phenomena to which you adapt, minimize the domain of phenomena for which you stay behind.

Thus, keep your identity lean: ruthlessly trim from it anything that isn't essential to your own survival. If something is merely useful, make it part of your internal baggage, not your external identity. Past adaptations are good to follow when they are good to follow, they are bad otherwise, and they are never specifically "you".

Focus on one or a few narrow issues where you can be the best, go deep, and contribute something that no one else can. This contribution can be the part of yourself that you can spread, that will keep you alive beyond your mere biological existence. About these vital issues, you'll have to constantly stay on the top of the evolving competition, which will require constant effort. You only have so many resources available, so pick your fight wisely.

For all the rest, readily admit your incompetence, and delegate without mercy: find competent people whose decisions you'll follow wherever decisions are needed. You don't have to find them in advance — when you don't know botany (and even when you do), it is wise to judge a plant by the fruits it bears. You also shouldn't fight for them, and especially not if they are asking you. If they're so weak as to need the help of an incompetent, you shouldn't choose them to begin with; the only reason why they could actually benefit from your sacrifice to their cause is if they are parasiting you [2].

And so choosing the right people to whom to delegate itself requires some competence at the meta-level. Though this choice can itself be delegated, the buck ultimately stops at you. You have to trust other people for quite a lot of things. You may usefully understand the fundamentals of other fields, but more importantly, you need to understand the fundamentals of evolution, with its evolutionary pressures, of human action, with the power of incentives, or human psychology, with each individual's deep values, etc. With some understanding, you'll soon find that many common alternatives can be proven wrong, yet not so obviously wrong that they won't seduce those many people who don't dare to think in terms of fundamentals. There again, keep your identity lean: don't overcommit your self to what other people decide, and don't hesitate to reject those who betray your trust. In the end, you'll have to make the choice that matter to you, depending on all the particulars that only you know about your own life.

Following appropriate rules may take you to the Fast Lane. But if your software system is itself to be in the Fast Lane, it better internalize as much of such rules as possible — more so than competing software systems, anyway. Your system should be lean, having a small core identity that carries its deep message with integrity. It should focus on a few narrow things that it does well, and adapt easily to change inside or outside this focus. It should avoid autism, and systematically delegate everything outside this focus to other systems. And it should be able to take fundamentals into account, and avoid common pitfalls. Your software system will be successful not just if it can withstand the high-speed evolution around it, but if it can make this evolution even faster.

In any case, whether you're pursuing a quest for the ultimate meaning, whether you're concerned about the survival of your own memes, whether you're in for the big bucks, or whether it's the thrill of the action, one thing is obvious to me: once you grok what Evolution is all about, you'll want to be where the action is, and grab your bite of it.

Conclusion

Where My Mouth Is

The double narrative I've presented in this essay is my vision of what computer systems may become. I've started long ago the TUNES project to build a system that could internalize evolution. But to my shame, it has remained vaporware ever since.

The goal of TUNES would be to provide the core system infrastructure to which other software would delegate basic evolutionary mechanisms. Extensibility from the ground up; declarative metaprogramming; virtualization and isolation of components at appropriately high level of abstractions; extraction, verification and implementation of bootstrap paths; enforcement of contracts between various software actors; conversation with inductive systems; such would be services provided by the system.

I think that despite its many shortcomings, Lisp is still my best starting point: though it is not declarative enough, particularly so at the meta-level, and though it is too autistic, Lisp traditionally includes some mechanisms for internal evolution that most other languages are missing, such as metaprogramming. I believe the low-hanging fruits for such infrastructure are still the use reflection to drive distributed systems, but that inductive learning will soon be applicable to programs themselves.

Where My Money Is

Since October 2008, I'm now hiring someone full time to extend Lisp towards the low-hanging fruits of TUNES. Meanwhile, I'm working on XCVB to make Lisp evolution less autistic.

I readily admit I don't have quite as much to show as I'd like.

What are you doing? Are you interested in joining forces?

Footnotes

[1]

Even assuming the internal representation of knowledge of the target system matches that of the source system, which is a precondition for directly importing any of its knowledge, and assuming moreover that you have a model for merging data into the existing target system as opposed to merely cloning the source system, you still might not want to do it. You may not trust the conclusions of the other system's past interactions, as it implies trusting both the trustworthiness of all past inputs and the relevance of all past outputs.

For trust reasons, you might as well want to replay recorded interactions. Such an action replay is a general mechanism that requires no shared representation of knowledge. Moreover, when replaying recorded interactions, you will want to filtering and recalibration these recordings based on a reevaluation of trustworthiness and relevance of these interactions. You may not want the target system to trust the source system's teacher as much (or as little) as the source system did; and the questions and answers that the source system issued may not seem relevant to the target system, whereas the target system may have interrogations not elucidated by those interactions. So unless you're very trusting, you probably want to see the recording as a story to be taken with a pinch of salt, it being understood that it happened between two other entities, and not as memory that's blended in as if it had happened to the target system itself.

In other words, the best way to transfer knowledge to an inductive system is to have it take the same courses as the initial system; and while courses based on recordings of interactions with similar learning systems may be much better than recordings of courses without student interaction, it still doesn't replace interaction with a tutor, though a specialized tutor may remain much more expensive, unless it's itself automated — which is another typical a bootstrap problem.

[2]Of course, that doesn't mean you should never fight. You may realize that something is indeed part of your identity, and a cause worth risking your life for it. Or you may not be offered choice, and have to fight against your will. But don't let anyone draft your identity into serving as fodder for losing (or even winning) battles; remember that those who force you to fight are your enemies (your nearest enemies if not always your worst ones).